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Probability interview questions

Interviewers probe a candidate's foundational understanding of probability theory, their ability to apply concepts like conditional probability and Bayes' Theorem to real-world scenarios, and their grasp of random variables and common distributions. They look for clear logical reasoning and the capacity to articulate probabilistic thinking.

17 questions (5 easy · 6 medium · 6 hard), each with what a strong answer covers and where people lose the point. Free to read, no account.

On this page (17 questions)
  1. 1.What is the probability of getting exactly two heads in three coin tosses with a fair coin?
  2. 2.What is the probability of rolling a sum of 7 with two fair six-sided dice?
  3. 3.What is the probability of drawing an Ace from a standard 52-card deck?
  4. 4.If P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3, and A and B are disjoint events, what is P(A U B)?
  5. 5.If the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.6, what is the probability it will not rain?
  6. 6.What is the probability that the sum of two dice is 8, given that the first die rolled a 3?
  7. 7.Are drawing a red card and drawing a face card from a standard 52-card deck independent events? Explain why or why not.
  8. 8.A rare disease affects 1 in 1000 people. A test for the disease is 99% accurate (correctly identifies positive and negative cases). If a person tests positive, what is the probability they actually have the disease?
  9. 9.You play a game where you roll a fair six-sided die. If you roll a 6, you win $10. If you roll a 1, you lose $5. Otherwise, you win nothing. What is the expected value of playing this game?
  10. 10.A biased coin lands on heads with probability 0.6. If you flip it 5 times, what is the probability of getting exactly 3 heads?
  11. 11.A discrete random variable X has P(X=1)=0.2, P(X=2)=0.3, P(X=3)=0.4. Is this a valid PMF? If not, why? What is P(X > 2)?
  12. 12.Explain the Monty Hall problem and its solution. Why is it counter-intuitive for many people?
  13. 13.You have a population with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. If you take a sample of 100 observations, what can you say about the distribution of the sample mean?
  14. 14.A continuous random variable X has a PDF f(x) = 2x for 0 <= x <= 1, and 0 otherwise. Calculate P(X > 0.5).
  15. 15.For the PDF f(x) = 2x for 0 <= x <= 1, and 0 otherwise, calculate the expected value E[X].
  16. 16.For a Binomial distribution B(n, p), what are its expected value and variance? Derive or explain the intuition behind them.
  17. 17.Explain the Birthday Paradox and its underlying probabilistic reasoning.

1.What is the probability of getting exactly two heads in three coin tosses with a fair coin?

Warm-up

What a strong answer covers

  • Identify the sample space of all possible outcomes for three coin tosses (e.g., HHH, HHT, etc.).
  • Count the total number of possible outcomes.
  • Identify the favorable outcomes where exactly two heads occur.
  • Calculate the probability by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of outcomes.

Where people lose the point

  • Incorrectly listing the sample space or missing outcomes.
  • Miscounting the number of favorable outcomes.
  • Assuming outcomes are not equally likely for a fair coin.
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2.What is the probability of rolling a sum of 7 with two fair six-sided dice?

Warm-up

What a strong answer covers

  • List all possible outcomes when rolling two dice (e.g., (1,1), (1,2), ..., (6,6)).
  • Determine the total number of possible outcomes (36).
  • Identify the pairs of rolls that sum to 7.
  • Calculate the probability as the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes.

Where people lose the point

  • Forgetting that (1,6) is different from (6,1) when considering ordered pairs.
  • Incorrectly counting the total number of outcomes.
  • Missing some pairs that sum to 7.
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3.What is the probability of drawing an Ace from a standard 52-card deck?

Warm-up

What a strong answer covers

  • State the total number of cards in a standard deck.
  • Identify the number of Ace cards in a standard deck.
  • Apply the basic probability formula: (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of outcomes).

Where people lose the point

  • Incorrectly stating the number of cards in a deck.
  • Miscounting the number of Aces.
  • Overcomplicating a simple probability calculation.
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4.If P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3, and A and B are disjoint events, what is P(A U B)?

Warm-up

What a strong answer covers

  • Recall the definition of disjoint (mutually exclusive) events.
  • State the formula for the probability of the union of two disjoint events.
  • Substitute the given probabilities into the formula and calculate the result.

Where people lose the point

  • Using the general addition rule P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) without recognizing P(A ∩ B) = 0 for disjoint events.
  • Incorrectly adding or subtracting probabilities.
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5.If the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.6, what is the probability it will not rain?

Warm-up

What a strong answer covers

  • Define the concept of a complementary event.
  • State the formula for the probability of a complementary event (P(A') = 1 - P(A)).
  • Apply the formula using the given probability.

Where people lose the point

  • Misunderstanding the relationship between an event and its complement.
  • Performing incorrect arithmetic.
Link to this question

6.What is the probability that the sum of two dice is 8, given that the first die rolled a 3?

Core

What a strong answer covers

  • Define the events: A = sum is 8, B = first die is 3.
  • Identify the reduced sample space given that the first die rolled a 3.
  • From this reduced sample space, identify the outcome(s) where the sum is 8.
  • Calculate P(A|B) as the ratio of favorable outcomes in the reduced sample space to the total outcomes in the reduced sample space.

Where people lose the point

  • Not correctly identifying the reduced sample space after the condition is given.
  • Confusing P(A|B) with P(A ∩ B).
  • Incorrectly applying the general conditional probability formula P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) without first simplifying the problem by reducing the sample space.
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7.Are drawing a red card and drawing a face card from a standard 52-card deck independent events? Explain why or why not.

Core

What a strong answer covers

  • Define the events: A = drawing a red card, B = drawing a face card.
  • Calculate P(A), P(B), and P(A ∩ B) (probability of drawing a red face card).
  • Apply the test for independence: P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B).
  • Conclude whether the events are independent based on the comparison and provide a clear explanation.

Where people lose the point

  • Incorrectly calculating any of the individual probabilities (P(A), P(B), P(A ∩ B)).
  • Misapplying the independence test or making an incorrect conclusion.
  • Failing to provide a clear, logical explanation for the conclusion.
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8.A rare disease affects 1 in 1000 people. A test for the disease is 99% accurate (correctly identifies positive and negative cases). If a person tests positive, what is the probability they actually have the disease?

Core

What a strong answer covers

  • Define the events: D = has disease, D' = does not have disease, T+ = tests positive, T- = tests negative.
  • State the given probabilities: P(D), P(T+|D), P(T-|D'), and infer P(T-|D) and P(T+|D').
  • Apply Bayes' Theorem: P(D|T+) = [P(T+|D)P(D)] / P(T+).
  • Calculate P(T+) using the law of total probability: P(T+) = P(T+|D)P(D) + P(T+|D')P(D').

Where people lose the point

  • Confusing P(T+|D) (sensitivity) with P(D|T+) (positive predictive value).
  • Incorrectly calculating P(T+) or other component probabilities.
  • Failing to account for the base rate (prevalence) of the disease.
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9.You play a game where you roll a fair six-sided die. If you roll a 6, you win $10. If you roll a 1, you lose $5. Otherwise, you win nothing. What is the expected value of playing this game?

Core

What a strong answer covers

  • Identify the possible outcomes (die rolls) and their associated monetary values (X).
  • Determine the probability of each outcome (P(X=x)).
  • Apply the formula for expected value of a discrete random variable: E[X] = Σ x * P(x).
  • Calculate the sum to find the expected value.

Where people lose the point

  • Incorrectly assigning probabilities to the outcomes.
  • Making arithmetic errors in the summation.
  • Misinterpreting 'win nothing' as a non-outcome or incorrect value.
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10.A biased coin lands on heads with probability 0.6. If you flip it 5 times, what is the probability of getting exactly 3 heads?

Core

What a strong answer covers

  • Recognize that this scenario follows a Binomial distribution.
  • Identify the parameters: n (number of trials), p (probability of success), and k (number of successes).
  • State the Binomial probability formula: P(X=k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k).
  • Substitute the values and calculate the result, showing the combination calculation.

Where people lose the point

  • Incorrectly identifying the parameters n, p, or k.
  • Errors in calculating the binomial coefficient C(n, k).
  • Arithmetic mistakes in the power calculations or final multiplication.
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11.A discrete random variable X has P(X=1)=0.2, P(X=2)=0.3, P(X=3)=0.4. Is this a valid PMF? If not, why? What is P(X > 2)?

Core

What a strong answer covers

  • Recall the two conditions for a valid Probability Mass Function (PMF): all probabilities must be non-negative, and their sum must equal 1.
  • Check if the given probabilities satisfy these conditions.
  • State whether it is a valid PMF and explain why.
  • Calculate P(X > 2) by summing the probabilities of values greater than 2.

Where people lose the point

  • Forgetting one of the conditions for a valid PMF (e.g., only checking sum to 1, not non-negativity).
  • Incorrectly summing the probabilities.
  • Misinterpreting P(X > 2) as P(X=2) or P(X>=2).
Link to this question

12.Explain the Monty Hall problem and its solution. Why is it counter-intuitive for many people?

Hard

What a strong answer covers

  • Clearly describe the setup of the Monty Hall problem (3 doors, car behind one, goat behind others, contestant chooses, host opens empty door, contestant can switch).
  • Explain the optimal strategy: always switch doors.
  • Provide a clear probabilistic argument for why switching doubles the probability of winning (e.g., by considering the initial choice's probability and the host's action).
  • Discuss why it's counter-intuitive, often due to the 'equal probability' fallacy after the host's action.

Where people lose the point

  • Incorrectly stating the optimal strategy (e.g., saying it doesn't matter if you switch).
  • Failing to provide a rigorous probabilistic explanation for the solution.
  • Not adequately explaining the source of the counter-intuitiveness.
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13.You have a population with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. If you take a sample of 100 observations, what can you say about the distribution of the sample mean?

Hard

What a strong answer covers

  • State the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and its conditions (large sample size, independent observations).
  • Explain that, due to the CLT, the distribution of the sample mean will be approximately normal.
  • Specify the mean of this sampling distribution (equal to the population mean).
  • Calculate the standard deviation of the sampling distribution (standard error) using the formula σ/√n.

Where people lose the point

  • Confusing the distribution of the sample mean with the distribution of the population.
  • Incorrectly calculating the standard error.
  • Failing to mention the 'approximately normal' aspect or the conditions for CLT.
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14.A continuous random variable X has a PDF f(x) = 2x for 0 <= x <= 1, and 0 otherwise. Calculate P(X > 0.5).

Hard

What a strong answer covers

  • Recall that for a continuous random variable, probability over an interval is found by integrating the PDF.
  • Set up the definite integral for P(X > 0.5) from 0.5 to 1.
  • Perform the integration of f(x) = 2x.
  • Evaluate the definite integral to find the probability.

Where people lose the point

  • Attempting to sum probabilities as if it were a discrete variable.
  • Incorrectly setting the limits of integration.
  • Making errors in the integration or evaluation of the definite integral.
Link to this question

15.For the PDF f(x) = 2x for 0 <= x <= 1, and 0 otherwise, calculate the expected value E[X].

Hard

What a strong answer covers

  • Recall the formula for the expected value of a continuous random variable: E[X] = ∫ x * f(x) dx.
  • Substitute the given PDF into the formula, setting the integration limits from 0 to 1.
  • Perform the integration of x * (2x) = 2x^2.
  • Evaluate the definite integral to find the expected value.

Where people lose the point

  • Forgetting to multiply f(x) by x before integrating.
  • Incorrectly setting the limits of integration.
  • Making errors in the integration or evaluation of the definite integral.
Link to this question

16.For a Binomial distribution B(n, p), what are its expected value and variance? Derive or explain the intuition behind them.

Hard

What a strong answer covers

  • State the expected value E[X] = np for a Binomial distribution.
  • Provide an intuitive explanation for E[X] = np (e.g., if you flip a coin n times with success probability p, you expect np successes).
  • State the variance Var[X] = np(1-p) for a Binomial distribution.
  • Provide an intuitive explanation for Var[X] = np(1-p) (e.g., relating it to the variance of a single Bernoulli trial and summing variances for independent trials).

Where people lose the point

  • Incorrectly stating the formulas for expected value or variance.
  • Failing to provide a clear intuitive explanation for the formulas.
  • Attempting a full mathematical derivation without being asked, or providing an incorrect derivation.
Link to this question

17.Explain the Birthday Paradox and its underlying probabilistic reasoning.

Hard

What a strong answer covers

  • Describe the Birthday Paradox: the surprisingly high probability that two people in a relatively small group share the same birthday.
  • Explain the core probabilistic reasoning: it's easier to calculate the complement (no two people share a birthday) and subtract from 1.
  • Detail the calculation for the complement: (365/365) * (364/365) * (363/365) * ... for each person.
  • Highlight why it's counter-intuitive (people often compare their birthday to others, not all pairs of birthdays).

Where people lose the point

  • Misstating the paradox or its conditions.
  • Incorrectly explaining the 'complement' approach or the calculation.
  • Failing to articulate why it feels counter-intuitive to many.
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Practising Probability: common questions

What Probability interview questions should I practice?
Start with the core areas Probability interviewers probe: What is the probability of getting exactly two heads in three coin tosses with a fair coin; What is the probability of rolling a sum of 7 with two fair six-sided dice; What is the probability of drawing an Ace from a standard 52-card deck. This page outlines strong answers and common mistakes, and the scored path drills each one with follow-ups.
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How should I prepare for a Probability interview?
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How is a Probability answer scored?
Probability answers are scored on correctness, conceptual depth, problem-solving approach, communication, with evidence quoted from what you actually said, so feedback is specific instead of generic praise.